Does it feel like you knew a lot of people who got COVID this summer? It’s likely. There was a summer COVID-19 peak in Needham and throughout the country. “The summer wave has made people nervous,” said Needham Public Health Division epidemiologist Julie McCarthy.
Epidemiologists can monitor virus trends in real time through wastewater tracking. Levels of virus RNA are measured in sewage processing plants such as the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority’s. Needham belongs to the MWRA southern system.
MRWA wastewater data paint a remarkable picture of peaks and valleys, illustrating the ongoing summer peak and the larger winter peaks of January 2023 and 2024. Those winter peaks were 2 to 3 times higher than summer 2024 but not nearly as high as winter 2022 and earlier.
This winter will take us into year five of living with the virus. “As time goes on, the virus is naturally going to become less virulent and more infectious,” said McCarthy. “That’s the smart virus move, is to maintain levels in the population but not make people too ill.”
“As much as it’s still difficult and interrupting school and travel and is still responsible for some bad outcomes, we don’t worry about it quite as much as we used to,” said Needham resident Dr. Matt Leibowitz, chief of the division of infectious diseases at Newton-Wellesley Hospital. “That’s due to whatever degree of herd immunity is out there. Whether we are at ultimate best herd immunity, whether the virus will continue to change, is still to be seen.
“Quite likely, there will be another big peak in January-February-March,” he said. “All the viruses we know have pretty reliable cycles of seasonal transmission. Behavior of the virus that causes COVID-19 is still working its way into a cycle.”
Protecting yourself
During the winter respiratory virus season, COVID-19 and influenza vaccines go hand in hand. Some people may also qualify for the RSV vaccine.
“The best thing that you can do for yourself to prevent severe illness and hospitalization is to get the vaccine[s],” said McCarthy. “The virus is constantly mutating. Your neighbor may have a mild case, and you may end up very sick or low-level sick for a long time. Get it because you don’t want to get hospitalized. Get it because you want to protect those around you.”
She noted that from both a COVID-19 and flu perspective, Needham is a highly vaccinated population.
“If you are interested in not getting COVID or the flu, the vaccine is a core part of that,” said Leibowitz. “Even if the effectiveness at preventing infection is not 100 percent, the effectiveness of preventing severe outcomes is worthwhile.”
He also mentioned using masks to protect oneself and others, and the importance of general strategies such as covering your cough and using hand hygiene.
Vaccine timing
For those who recently had COVID-19, Liebowitz recommends waiting at least a couple of months before getting a vaccine before Jan. 1. For influenza, he said data suggest October is ideal.
“For all these vaccines, there is no wrong time to get them,” Leibowitz said. “For convenience, if you want to get COVID and influenza vaccines at the same time, October is reasonable. If you wanted to space them out, [you could] get the COVID vaccine now and delay the flu shot for a little while into October.”
“It is absolutely fair to get it when it works best for you,” said McCarthy.
To maximize protection for travel, holidays or a family gathering, it is important to keep in mind that immunity takes about two weeks to develop. Protection increases following vaccination or infection and then wanes over time, especially after four to six months.
From pandemic to endemic
Although the virus is still prevalent, the COVID-19 public health emergency ended in May 2023.
“It’s remarkable that there was a time in 2020-2021 that if you went out to a concert or went out to dinner you might die,” said Leibowitz. The World Health Organization has documented over seven million deaths to date.
Leibowitz remembers hearing about a case in early to mid-March of 2020, and thinking, “Maybe this will just be restricted to China, or this will just be restricted to Italy, and it was wishful thinking, and then it was here. Then it was just getting to work; there was so much to do.”
For additional vaccine information, visit the CDC , MA DPH, and Needham Public Schools websites. Vaccines.gov will generate a ZIP code-based listing of nearby pharmacies that provide the COVID-19 vaccine. Needham Public Health plans to make influenza and COVID-19 vaccines available; contact them for details.
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