The town’s extended journey toward compliance with the state’s MBTA Communities Law will reach its endgame Monday evening (Oct. 21) when Special Town Meeting convenes at 7:30 p.m. at Powers Hall.

The town’s compliance plan is the subject of four of the 14 articles on the Town Meeting warrant and will likely require multiple hours of discussion before being decided. There is a sense of urgency to the process, as the town is facing an end of year deadline for submitting its plan to the state for establishing a new zoning district in town that facilitates the construction of multifamily housing near the town’s commuter rail line.

The town created an ad hoc committee, the Housing Needham Advisory Group, to oversee a nearly yearlong process that produced a detailed draft. HONE’s work was then handed off in August to the Planning Board, which made modest revisions before finalizing the plans that Town Meeting will consider.

The Planning Board retained HONE’s somewhat novel approach of offering Town Meeting two plans to consider. The first is the so-called base compliance plan, which makes relatively minor adjustments to the town’s current zoning regulations and fulfills the town’s obligation to comply with the law, which would require construction be allowed by-right.

The second plan is the more ambitious neighborhood plan. It has the same underlying zoning as the base plan and the same by-right provisions, but loosens dimensional regulations, such as height, to allow the additional density needed to accommodate multifamily housing,

The challenge for Town Meeting will be wading through a sea of numbers that are largely projections or predictions based on assumptions and calculations that extend out as far as 15 years and are subject to broad interpretations.

Here is a look at what has occurred to date and a preview of how Town Meeting is expected to proceed.

WHO’S MAKING THE ARGUMENTS?

The first warrant article will offer the base plan and will be presented by the Planning Board through its chair, Natasha Espada. She will have 12 minutes to provide an overview of the base compliance plan and what it is intended to accomplish.

Heidi Frail, a Select Board member who co-chaired the HONE Committee along with Espada, will follow Espada. She will articulate the Select Board’s recommendation to approve the base plan.

““My focus is going to be less numeric but more about the real reason for doing this – responding to Needham’s housing crisis,” she said.

The final presentation will be made by Carol Smith Fachetti, chair of the Finance Committee, which voted unanimously Wednesday to support the base plan.

“‘We have a state law that we need to comply with,” Fachetti said in an interview prior to the Finance Committee vote. “We have an obligation, unless somebody changes the law, to try and do what they ask. Do I like it? Maybe not.”

The base plan will then be put before Town Meeting for discussion and eventual vote. While it is possible some Town Meeting members will oppose complying, the minimal compliance plan is highly likely to be passed; failure to comply exposes the town to loss of funds and possible action from the state Attorney General.

On the off chance the base plan does not pass, the neighborhood plan would not be allowed to be discussed and the town would be in jeopardy of not complying.

If, as expected, the base plan is passed, Town Meeting will take a subsequent largely pro forma vote to approve the zoning map for the plan.

CUE THE FIREWORKS

Assuming the base plan and its map are passed, Town Moderator Michael Fee will declare the two articles “disposed of” – i.e., settled. That will be followed by a motion to reconsider the articles, launching the discussion on the broader neighborhood plan. If the neighborhood plan were to be passed, it would supersede the base plan.

Espada will explain how the neighborhood plan expands on the base plan. Frail will then follow, offering the Select Board’s rationale for endorsing the more ambitious plan.

“I think we could argue about these numbers all day. I don’t think that’s really productive,” Frail said. “I think we need to make a choice and a commitment to the future we want Needham to have. In my opinion, more housing leads to more economic security and more security for our schools and certainly more security for our senior population.”

John Connelly will then present the Finance Committee’s position, which is to not support the neighborhood plan once compliance has been obtained. Connelly has expressed concern that an influx of new housing could strain the town’s physical infrastructure and put more stress on an already overcrowded school system.

WHO’S IN FAVOR

Prior to Town Meeting, the neighborhood plan received endorsements from multiple town committees and a host of local businesses and nonprofits. Statements of support came from, among others, the Council on Aging, the Board of Health, the Climate Action Committee and the Mobility Planning & Coordination Committee – all of whom argued that additional housing helped support many of their own core goals.

The Charles River Chamber submitted a letter of support from more than 30 of its members, a list which ranged from the town’s largest to its smallest companies.

Town Meeting will likely hear from members of the Needham Housing Coalition, a pro-housing group that has been holding monthly informational and advocacy meetings in support of expanding housing opportunities for more than a year.

“Needham is currently not providing housing choice,” said the NHC’s Oscar Mertz. “That is something the town’s own annual community survey indicates a vast majority of residents clearly want.”

“If we build more housing in Needham, there will be more housing choice in Needham.”

WHO’S OPPOSED

The NHC’s policy opposite is an ad hoc group, Needham Residents for Thoughtful Zoning. Its members have spoken against the plan at multiple public meetings, expressing concern that the plan has not been sufficiently vetted for its impact on town services, especially the town’s infrastructure.

NRTZ member Chris Urban offered a lengthy analysis at a Planning Board public hearing, stating that the town’s estimates for projected student enrollment are far too low and that the schools will not be able to handle the influx she anticipates.

“You already have overcrowded schools and this will only make that worse,” she said.

Two other Town Meeting members, Ali Blauer of Precinct D and Wells Blanchard of Precinct C, are parents of elementary school children who share a fear of stressing the school’s capacity.

And Precinct I member Glenn Mulno said he supports the plan but still has proposed amending the zoning article’s treatment of the property at 100 West St., the former Carter building, to place a firmer cap on the number of units allowed at that site, which is considered the zoning district property most likely to be developed should zoning be changed.

HOW LONG WILL IT TAKE?

There are many factors that suggest TM is in for a long night. The issues are complex and the “facts” have been described as subjective and open to interpretation.

There are 100 acres affected by the zoning form the “spine” of the town along Highland Avenue from Webster Street to Chapel Street to Chestnut Street. While none of the suggested zoning changes occur in districts currently zoned residential, the area is already dense and abutters will likely have concerns. 

The town moderator acknowledged that there is a “tradition” that Fall Town Meeting be completed in one night, but adjourning to a second session is not forbidden.

“There is certainly a long-held expectation that the fall Special will be completed in one night, but if it takes longer, so be it,” Fee said.

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