With less than three weeks remaining in the race to succeed Denise Garlick as state representative for the 13th Norfolk District, it appears likely that candidates Bill Dermody and Josh Tarsky will not have another chance to meet in a face-to-face candidate forum.
A League of Women Voters forum planned for Oct. 16 was postponed following the death of Tarsky’s mother. A League representative said both candidates indicated a willingness to reschedule the forum as a Zoom-only event, but with early voting starting Oct. 19 that is not likely to occur.
To date, the race has featured only one joint appearance by the two candidates, a Sept. 26 virtual debate organized by the Charles River Chamber. The September event attracted more than 100 real-time attendees on Zoom and has subsequently been viewed more than 400 times on the Chamber’s YouTube page. Still, that means it has been seen only by a small fraction of voters.
This being a presidential election year, a heavy turnout is expected Nov. 5, as well as from early voting and those who vote by mail. In 2020, more than 28,000 13th Norfolk voters cast ballots — 20,000 of them from Needham.
That represents a turnout of around 70%, which is four to five times larger than the typical turnout for annual town elections that occur in the spring. This presents a challenge for two candidates who have never appeared on a November ballot and likely are not known quantities to the wide swath of the electorate that does not closely follow local affairs.
Both candidates are residents of Needham, which is also home to more than two-thirds of the district’s eligible voters. The district also includes Dover and two precincts in Medfield. Within Needham, Dermody began the race with a name recognition advantage derived from family history and a four-decade record of community and civic involvement.
Tarsky has lived in Needham for fewer than four years, so most of his civic engagement — including his work as a high school principal — has taken place in other communities. Nevertheless, he emerged from a four-way primary for the Democratic nomination with a comfortable margin of victory over three candidates with longer Needham histories.
A comparison of the candidate’s fundraising efforts, spending priorities and the endorsements they’ve received reveals the extent of Dermody’s advantage and how Tarsky is attempting to overcome it.
Based on campaign finance reports as of Oct. 1, Dermody has received more than three-quarters of his donations from residents of the district, while 79% of Tarsky’s contributors reside outside the district.
Dermody has raised nearly $47,000 and still had $34,000 on hand as of Oct. 1. Unlike Tarsky, Dermody did not need to spend money to compete in a September primary. Because he is running as an unenrolled candidate, Dermody went straight to the November ballot and has been able to hold his powder to some extent.
Tarsky has raised nearly $33,000, but his spending on the September primary race had reduced his war chest to around $7,500 at the start of October. He also noted that his fundraising ability is hampered by campaign finance regulations that forbid him, as a public employee (principal of Holbrook Middle-High School), from soliciting for funds.
“It has definitely been a hindrance to our fundraising capabilities. No two ways about it,” he said. “It’s challenging. I think there are a lot of advantages that a non-public employee has over me.”
As for spending priorities, Dermody’s reports show expenses related to three mailings compared to Tarsky’s one. Dermody has also spent twice as much as Tarsky on lawn signs.
On the endorsement front, Dermody gained perhaps the single most important endorsement in the race when long-term incumbent Garlick announced in late September that she was supporting Dermody. He also has support from three union groups.
Dermody’s list of donors includes many well-known local residents, including longtime elected officials Marianne Cooley of the Select Board, Connie Barr from the School Committee, former Town Clerk Tedi Eaton and Town Moderator Michael Fee, an array that Garlick cited as mirroring her own endorsement.
“In an election for state representative, the personal endorsements, the endorsements of the community leaders who have held elected office, the members of civic and service organizations, that matters a great deal,” she said.
As the Democratic Party’s standard-bearer, Tarsky has been endorsed by both Massachusetts U.S. senators, Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey; Gov. Maura Healey and Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll; U.S. reps. Seth Moulton and Jake Auchincloss; state Auditor Diana DiZoglio and state Sen. Becca Rausch. Warren, Auchincloss and Rausch are all on the November ballot, and Tarsky may benefit from a halo effect.
Tarsky has also gained key local support, including Heidi Frail from the Select Board and Artie Crocker of the Planning Board. Tarsky is also benefiting from broad but not unanimous support from the Town Democratic Committee, and from local housing advocates.
After winning the primary, Tarsky said his campaign shifted into a higher gear. “The full weight of the Democratic Party was introduced to me in a lot of ways,” he said.
Tarsky has dedicated a majority of his spending on vendors who provide intelligence on voter identification, voter contact strategies and overall political organizing. His main vendor, Dover Strategies, has also been utilized by his endorsees — Moulton, Auchincloss, Healey and Rausch.
As to how they plan to approach the final weeks of the campaign, Dermody said he intends to continue to put in 12-hour days and that his job as a real estate agent allows him to combine campaigning and doing his job.
“I’ve been knocking on doors and attending a lot of community’s events,” he said. “I’ve spent decades on the ground working to improve this community. I feel like this campaign is just an extension of that.”
He said he has a strategy for spending down his campaign balance but declined to tip his hand by offering specific plans for the money. “People will see,” he said. “We’re definitely going to spend the money that we’ve raised.”
Tarsky and his group of mostly youthful campaign volunteers have been relentless canvassers and door-knockers, utilizing the lists they have developed to improve the odds they are knocking on the doors of likely supporters. He said his campaign’s closing weeks will see that effort accelerate.
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