What zoning changes allow and what actually gets built (and when) are not the same thing.
In an effort to determine what might occur when zoning is adjusted, the town’s zoning consultants used “propensity modeling” to assign likelihood-for-change percentages on a parcel-by-parcel basis. This modeling projects how the zoning changes might affect the underlying value of the land, and whether increasing the potential profitability of certain parcels would be a sufficient incentive for the owner to make a change — perhaps invest in either converting those properties from nonresidential to residential use, or to create a mixed-use development that would combine the two with retail on the ground floor and housing above.
Although grounded in data, the consultants readily acknowledged that the analysis is more projection than prediction.
Town Meeting passed zoning that theoretically has the capacity to increase the number of units from the existing 775 to as many as 3,296 units — well above the 1,784-unit capacity required for compliance. Opponents of the plan have seized on that disparity, but supporters say that total will not come close to being realized in the reality of the market.
The Observer reviewed spreadsheets developed by the consultants who studied myriad data points to produce propensity scores for the parcels included in the new zoning. Of those parcels, 17 showed potential to create developments with more than 50 units. Those 17 account for nearly 2,000 potential units, or nearly 60% of the Neighborhood Plan capacity. But less than a handful — only three — were considered more than 50% likely to be redeveloped. Here are some of the projections:
More than 50% likely for development
- The Hartney-Greymont property at 433 Chestnut St. Potential yield:180 units.
- The former Carter building at 100 West St., already zoned for multifamily housing. Potential yield: 187 new units
- The Needham Oil properties along Chestnut Street. Potential yield: 75 units
- The McDonalds property at 340 Chestnut St. Potential yield: 33 units
- The Family Federal Savings bank at 129 Chestnut St. Potential yield: 32 units
- Chestnut Dental at 87 Chestnut St. Potential yield: 31 units
- The YMCA Family Center at 380 Chestnut St. Potential yield: 27 units
Less than 50% likely for development
Properties that seem to be thriving in their current uses were projected to have only a 25% to 50% likelihood of being converted to multifamily use. Four on Chestnut Street and one on Highland Avenue are assigned a combined capacity of 375 potential new units but appear unlikely to yield any actual units:
- Roche Bros. supermarket
- Needham Garden & Hardware store
- The strip mall at 214 Chestnut St. adjacent to BID-Needham
- Chestnut Children’s Center
- The Highland Avenue building that is home to Subway, Hungry Coyote and the Verizon store.
Less than 25% likely for development
Unlikely to change are three existing multifamily complexes that currently have 286 units. Redevelopment could lead to 606 units, but their current value makes development untenable. All three properties were considered to have no propensity for change.
- The Rosemary Ridge condos (135 existing units)
- The Charles Court East condos off Greendale Avenue (116 existing units)
- The Highlands on Highland Court near the Emery Grover Building (35 existing units)
The VFW at 20 Junction St. could possibly produce 76 new units, but is assigned a 0%-25% chance of being converted to multifamily housing..
According to the propensity modeling, development on Highland Ave. from May Street to the so-called Bertucci’s plaza will face hurdles. For development on the St. Joseph’s Church side of the street to be possible, a developer would have to succeed in completing the buyout and rebuild of the 35 individually owned condominiums at Highland Court. The consultants indicated that’s financially a nonstarter.
Along the train tracks across the street, building multifamily housing would likely require consolidating the ownership of multiple properties.
The Doherty and Eaton funeral homes are multigenerational institutions in Needham. The two other adjacent properties are already owned by developers: a two-family home owned by Needham Enterprises and the Circle of Hope/Burbspace commercial building behind those properties is owned by the Petrini Corp.
The propensity-for-change model rates the likelihood of those four properties individually changing at between 50% and 75%. Collecting all four to create a large parcel may be more challenging.
Finally the Bertucci’s plaza — two properties owned by South Shore 4414 Holdings, which purchased them in 2017 for $11.65 million — is fully leased, with Conrad’s restaurant planning to open in a matter of weeks once its substantial renovation is finished. It is also home to Cookie Monstah and Needham Wine & Spirits on either side of Conrad’s. Pure Hockey, SuperCuts, the Mathnasium and Needham Nails are on the opposite side. That site’s propensity for change is rated at between 25% and 50%.
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